Phase Success Probability Calculator

Estimate the probability of a drug reaching FDA approval given its current development phase. Base rates from Hay et al. 2014 + BIO-BIA 2024 — calibrated for therapeutic-area-specific success rates.

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FAQ

Where do these probabilities come from?
Industry-aggregate Phase-by-Phase success rates from Hay et al. (Nat Biotech 2014), BIO Industry Analysis (BIA 2024), and Drug Landscape's own validation against ClinicalTrials.gov outcomes.
Does therapeutic area affect success?
Yes — oncology Phase 3 success is ~50%, infectious disease 65%, neurology 35%, cardiology 55%. Use the area dropdown.

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