Last reviewed 2026-05-31 · How we verify

NPC-21 Low dose

Nobelpharma · Phase 2 active Small molecule ✓ Verified May 2026

NPC-21 Low dose is a Small molecule drug developed by Nobelpharma. It is currently in Phase 2 development.

NPC-21 Low dose is being studied in a clinical trial for the prevention of cytomegalovirus disease in kidney transplant recipients at high-risk of infection. The study, NCT04225923, is a Phase 2, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted by Nobelpharma.

Likelihood of approval

15.3% vs 15.3% industry baseline

If approved by FDA: likely 2031–2034

Steps remaining: Phase 3 → NDA/BLA submission

Confidence: Medium

Why this estimate

Baseline phase 2 → approval rate +15.3pp
Industry-wide phase 2 drugs reach approval ~15.3% of the time (BIO/Informa 2023 industry benchmark across all therapeutic areas).

Predicted approval windows by jurisdiction (conditional on FDA approval)

Regulator	Country	Likely year	Lag vs FDA
FDA	US	2031–2034	—
EMA	EU	2032–2035	+0.7 yr
MHRA	GB	2032–2035	+0.7 yr
Health Canada	CA	2032–2036	+0.9 yr
TGA	AU	2032–2036	+1.2 yr
PMDA	JP	2032–2036	+1.5 yr
NMPA	CN	2033–2037	+2.3 yr
MFDS	KR	2032–2036	+1.4 yr
CDSCO	IN	2032–2037	+1.8 yr
ANVISA	BR	2033–2037	+2.3 yr

Hover any row for the lag rationale. Lag estimates are reduced when the drug has FDA Breakthrough or EMA PRIME designation (sponsors file globally in parallel).

Estimate based on the BIO/Informa industry phase transition rates plus per-drug modifiers for therapeutic area, sponsor type, FDA designations, mechanism, and trial design. Per-jurisdiction lags from Tufts CSDD international approval studies. Not investment, clinical or regulatory advice. Methodology: /methodology#likelihood.

At a glance

Generic name	NPC-21 Low dose
Sponsor	Nobelpharma
Modality	Small molecule
Phase	Phase 2

Approved indications

No approved indications tracked.

Common side effects

No common side effects on file.

Key clinical trials

A Study for Kidney Transplant Recipients at High-Risk of Cytomegalovirus Infection (PHASE2)

Primary sources

Every claim on this page is sourced from regulatory or scientific primary sources. See our editorial policy for full methodology.

Source	Used for
ClinicalTrials.gov	Trial enrolment, design, endpoints, results

Competitive intelligence

For the full competitive landscape — auto-detected comparators, recent regulatory actions across the set, upcoming PDUFA, patent timeline, sponsor landscape:

NPC-21 Low dose CI brief — competitive landscape report
NPC-21 Low dose updates RSS · CI watch RSS
Nobelpharma portfolio CI

Frequently asked questions about NPC-21 Low dose

What is NPC-21 Low dose?

NPC-21 Low dose is a Small molecule drug developed by Nobelpharma.

Who makes NPC-21 Low dose?

NPC-21 Low dose is developed by Nobelpharma (see full Nobelpharma pipeline at /company/nobelpharma).

What development phase is NPC-21 Low dose in?

NPC-21 Low dose is in Phase 2.

Manufacturer: Nobelpharma — full pipeline

Primary sources · FDA · ClinicalTrials.gov · EMA · SEC EDGAR · ChEMBL · Wikidata · full sourcing