Last reviewed 2026-05-23 · How we verify

mRNA-1020

ModernaTX, Inc. · Phase 1 active Biologic ✓ Verified May 2026 Quality 10/100

mRNA-1020 is a Biologic drug developed by ModernaTX, Inc.. It is currently in Phase 1 development. Also known as: Seasonal influenza vaccine.

mRNA-1020 is a vaccine being studied in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the prevention of seasonal influenza. The trial is evaluating the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of mRNA-1020 in healthy adults.

Likelihood of approval

12.6% vs 9.6% industry baseline

If approved by FDA: likely 2033–2036

Steps remaining: Phase 2 → Phase 3 → NDA/BLA submission

Confidence: Medium

Why this estimate

Baseline phase 1 → approval rate +9.6pp
Industry-wide phase 1 drugs reach approval ~9.6% of the time (BIO/Informa 2023 industry benchmark across all therapeutic areas).
Big-pharma sponsor +3.0pp
ModernaTX, Inc. is a top-20 pharma sponsor — historical approval rates run ~3pp above average due to scale, regulatory experience, and trial-design quality.

Predicted approval windows by jurisdiction (conditional on FDA approval)

Regulator	Country	Likely year	Lag vs FDA
FDA	US	2033–2036	—
EMA	EU	2034–2037	+0.7 yr
MHRA	GB	2034–2037	+0.7 yr
Health Canada	CA	2034–2038	+0.9 yr
TGA	AU	2034–2038	+1.2 yr
PMDA	JP	2034–2038	+1.5 yr
NMPA	CN	2035–2039	+2.3 yr
MFDS	KR	2034–2038	+1.4 yr
CDSCO	IN	2034–2039	+1.8 yr
ANVISA	BR	2035–2039	+2.3 yr

Hover any row for the lag rationale. Lag estimates are reduced when the drug has FDA Breakthrough or EMA PRIME designation (sponsors file globally in parallel).

Estimate based on the BIO/Informa industry phase transition rates plus per-drug modifiers for therapeutic area, sponsor type, FDA designations, mechanism, and trial design. Per-jurisdiction lags from Tufts CSDD international approval studies. Not investment, clinical or regulatory advice. Methodology: /methodology#likelihood.

At a glance

Generic name	mRNA-1020
Also known as	Seasonal influenza vaccine
Sponsor	ModernaTX, Inc.
Modality	Biologic
Phase	Phase 1

Approved indications

No approved indications tracked.

Common side effects

Injection site pain
Fatigue
Headache
Arthralgia
Myalgia
Injection site lymphadenopathy
Chills
Vomiting
COVID-19
Rhinovirus infection
Upper respiratory tract infection
Oropharyngeal pain

Key clinical trials

A Study of mRNA-1020 and mRNA-1030 Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Healthy Adults (PHASE1, PHASE2)

Primary sources

Every claim on this page is sourced from regulatory or scientific primary sources. See our editorial policy for full methodology.

Source	Used for
ClinicalTrials.gov	Trial enrolment, design, endpoints, results

Competitive intelligence

For the full competitive landscape — auto-detected comparators, recent regulatory actions across the set, upcoming PDUFA, patent timeline, sponsor landscape:

mRNA-1020 CI brief — competitive landscape report
mRNA-1020 updates RSS · CI watch RSS
ModernaTX, Inc. portfolio CI

Frequently asked questions about mRNA-1020

What is mRNA-1020?

mRNA-1020 is a Biologic drug developed by ModernaTX, Inc..

Who makes mRNA-1020?

mRNA-1020 is developed by ModernaTX, Inc. (see full ModernaTX, Inc. pipeline at /company/modernatx-inc).

Is mRNA-1020 also known as anything else?

mRNA-1020 is also known as Seasonal influenza vaccine.

What development phase is mRNA-1020 in?

mRNA-1020 is in Phase 1.

What are the side effects of mRNA-1020?

Common side effects of mRNA-1020 include Injection site pain, Fatigue, Headache, Arthralgia, Myalgia, Injection site lymphadenopathy.

Manufacturer: ModernaTX, Inc. — full pipeline
Also known as: Seasonal influenza vaccine

Primary sources · FDA · ClinicalTrials.gov · EMA · SEC EDGAR · ChEMBL · Wikidata · full sourcing