Last reviewed 2026-05-18 · How we verify

AGN-231868

AbbVie · Phase 1 active Small molecule Quality 0/100

AGN-231868 is a Small molecule drug developed by AbbVie. It is currently in Phase 1 development.

Likelihood of approval

12.6% vs 9.6% industry baseline

If approved by FDA: likely 2033–2036

Steps remaining: Phase 2 → Phase 3 → NDA/BLA submission

Confidence: Medium

Why this estimate

Baseline phase 1 → approval rate +9.6pp
Industry-wide phase 1 drugs reach approval ~9.6% of the time (BIO/Informa 2023 industry benchmark across all therapeutic areas).
Big-pharma sponsor +3.0pp
AbbVie is a top-20 pharma sponsor — historical approval rates run ~3pp above average due to scale, regulatory experience, and trial-design quality.

Predicted approval windows by jurisdiction (conditional on FDA approval)

Regulator	Country	Likely year	Lag vs FDA
FDA	US	2033–2036	—
EMA	EU	2034–2037	+0.7 yr
MHRA	GB	2034–2037	+0.7 yr
Health Canada	CA	2034–2038	+0.9 yr
TGA	AU	2034–2038	+1.2 yr
PMDA	JP	2034–2038	+1.5 yr
NMPA	CN	2035–2039	+2.3 yr
MFDS	KR	2034–2038	+1.4 yr
CDSCO	IN	2034–2039	+1.8 yr
ANVISA	BR	2035–2039	+2.3 yr

Hover any row for the lag rationale. Lag estimates are reduced when the drug has FDA Breakthrough or EMA PRIME designation (sponsors file globally in parallel).

Estimate based on the BIO/Informa industry phase transition rates plus per-drug modifiers for therapeutic area, sponsor type, FDA designations, mechanism, and trial design. Per-jurisdiction lags from Tufts CSDD international approval studies. Not investment, clinical or regulatory advice. Methodology: /methodology#likelihood.

At a glance

Generic name	AGN-231868
Sponsor	AbbVie
Modality	Small molecule
Phase	Phase 1

Approved indications

No approved indications tracked.

Common side effects

No common side effects on file.

Key clinical trials

A Study of the Drugs AGN-242428 and AGN-231868 in Participants With Dry Eye Disease (PHASE1, PHASE2)

Primary sources

Every claim on this page is sourced from regulatory or scientific primary sources. See our editorial policy for full methodology.

Source	Used for
ClinicalTrials.gov	Trial enrolment, design, endpoints, results

Competitive intelligence

For the full competitive landscape — auto-detected comparators, recent regulatory actions across the set, upcoming PDUFA, patent timeline, sponsor landscape:

AGN-231868 CI brief — competitive landscape report
AGN-231868 updates RSS · CI watch RSS
AbbVie portfolio CI

Frequently asked questions about AGN-231868

What is AGN-231868?

AGN-231868 is a Small molecule drug developed by AbbVie.

Who makes AGN-231868?

AGN-231868 is developed by AbbVie (see full AbbVie pipeline at /company/abbvie).

What development phase is AGN-231868 in?

AGN-231868 is in Phase 1.

Manufacturer: AbbVie — full pipeline

Primary sources · FDA · ClinicalTrials.gov · EMA · SEC EDGAR · ChEMBL · Wikidata · full sourcing